As we move into the fourth quarter of the year, it’s a good time to take a look at how the average sold prices Summit County real estate have changed over the course of 2020 and 2021.  It’s no secret that the Summit County real estate market is cooling, but that doesn’t mean sellers aren’t still getting top prices for their homes.  Let’s look at the real estate market in Summit County for the past, present, and future quarters.

This chart takes the 2022 prediction out to 2026. The chart offers a year-end prediction for 2022 that will happen if the current average sold price and the percentage decline in sales as of 9/30/22 for Summit County continues through year-end.As for ’23, ’24, ’25, and ’26, the chart mirrors the average price and number of sales percent changes that occurred in ’09, ’10, ’11, and ’12. The 2023 predicted sales decline is half of ’09’s (-12%). We did this simply because much of the news indicates a softer drop than what occurred in ’07, ’08, and ’09. In addition, ’08 is very similar to this year ’22 for declining sales.
A huge positive indicator in the chart above is that the average sold price remains extremely high.

Average Percent of List to Sold Price in Summit County:
The average percentage of list-to-sold price in Summit County has been on a steady decline since June of this year. In June, the county was at 100%, down from 102% in 2021. Then July of this year at 98.5%, August at 98%, and September at 96%.

This is still a tremendous percentage of the list-to-sold price, but there is a steady downward momentum. Of course, this statistic somewhat relates to how sellers are pricing their homes when they first hit the market. With the market’s downward pressure, a seller pricing a home at the average from three months ago can set them up to be a little high when a buyer layers in higher interest rates and possibly short-term rental restrictions that weren’t in place three months ago. These are still great numbers, but is this a trend or a four-month hiccup?

What does this mean for home buyers? 

For home buyers, this is good news. This means they’ll have more negotiating power and inventory when it comes to buying a home. As a Breckenridge realtor, I know buyers are gaining more negotiation room. Buyers can now get closer to their ideal purchase price without as much worry about being outbid by a cash buyer. As a Breckenridge realtor, I know that losing the home of your dreams is devastating, but I have strategies when making an offer on your behalf. 

What does this mean for sellers?  

For sellers, this might cause some level of concern. If this trend continues, it could mean that homes will take longer to sell and that sellers will have to be realistic on their asking prices. However, it’s important to keep in mind that these are still strong numbers overall and that Colorado and Summit County is still in a seller’s market. Keep in mind that as long as you are aware of the market trends, you can adjust your expectations and strategies accordingly. Feel free to reach out to me with any market questions, I am always happy to talk.

Quarter vs Quarter Price Change: A Look at the Numbers:
As we move into the fourth quarter of the year, it’s a good time to look at how the average sold prices Summit County real estate have changed over the course of 2020 and 2021. The data shows that there has been a steady increase in prices since the beginning of 2021, with a slight dip in the third quarter of 2021.

Of the 147 resale properties that were under contract (UC) at the end of the 3rd Quarter, their average sold price stands to be lower than what it was for the first three quarters of this year, and only 3% higher than all the resales that occurred during the 4th Quarter of 2021. Today (with what is pending), the average sold price will continue to slow its increase over last year’s average sold price.

What does this data tell us? It’s important to remember that Summit County is a seasonal market, so we expect to see some fluctuations in prices from quarter to quarter. That being said, the overall trend seems to be one of increasing prices, which is good news for sellers. However, buyers need to be aware that prices are still rising, so as a Breckenridge realtor I suggest buying sooner, rather than later if you can.

The Changes in Our Market Vary Significantly by Town:
All areas are not the same, are they? Breckenridge and Dillon are taking up the tail end of increasing values. Dillon is used to that, Breckenridge is not. As a top-selling Breckenridge realtor, I have been tracking these small changes, but it is nothing to be alarmed about.
​​​​​​​The chart above would be a year-end prediction if all continues as is, including the current average sold price and the percentage decline in sales.  We believe these year-end numbers will change, the 16% year-end price appreciation stands to come down, and the reduced sales will continue their downward trend somewhat.

Overall of this change, one thing is clear – the average sold price will remain very high, even with an expected flatting and a decline in the years ahead.

The housing market has been accelerating for a while, possibly faster than it should have. Prices have been going up rapidly due to low supply combined with high demand. However, there are new factors now in play including inflation, rising interest rates, and even the uncertainty surrounding the mid-term elections that are “putting on the brakes, causing the housing market to decelerate and slow. The result? Prices are going up more slowly because of decreased demand.

 What the overall Summit Country real estate market means for you:

●       If you’re a seller: The average rate of appreciation in a resort market is 10%. You can still expect to make a profit off your home, even though the market has slowed down somewhat.
●       And if you’re a buyer: Sellers are willing to negotiate now. There’s not much to be done about rising mortgage rates (unless you’re paying cash), but you can still expect your home to increase in value after you buy it.
●       Despite recent increases, 30-year mortgage rates are still below their historical average of nearly 8 percent. (
●       And EVERYONE…please resist the panic about a possible crash. We’re nowhere close to that scenario right now.

Regardless of current market ups and downs, Jan Leopold and the team have the knowledge and expertise to help you masterfully navigate the Breckenridge market. Jan Leopold has been a top-selling Breckenridge realtor for over 20 years. Contact Jan today for all your real estate needs, whether across the country or near me!